Roughly 450 horses are due to go to post at Cheltenham and, with the countdown now close to being reckoned in hours rather than days, the bookies rate only one – Altior, in Wednesday’s Champion Chase – as more likely to win than to lose. A few punters are about to have a week they will always remember. Many more will reach the finishing line desperate to forget.
The Festival’s 28 races offer a mind-boggling mass of possibilities, all the more so when runners with big chances, like Apple’s Jade and Laurina, are still being quoted for two races before the final decisions for the opening card are made on Sunday.
The pattern of recent years, though, has been for an ever decreasing number of stables to win a majority of the races and that trend seems certain to continue this year.
Three trainers – Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott and Nicky Henderson – won 17 of the 28 races at last year’s Cheltenham Festival. Over the last two seasons their record is 32 from 56; over three, 44 from 84 – a majority in other words and, while Paul Nicholls may be much more competitive this year and Joseph O’Brien is on course to join the elite before too long, the Big Three are the obvious place to start.
Mullins’s team for next week is slightly down on numbers compared with the last few seasons but he still has major challengers for most of the Grade One events and the 7-2 on offer for his stable to finish as the week’s leading yard could prove excellent value.
A few of his less obvious contenders may need to step up to secure a sixth leading trainer award since 2011 but there are plenty of runners like Aramon (14-1, Supreme Novice Hurdle) while Duc Des Genievres (13-2, Arkle) could definitely outrun their odds on the opening day.
Elliott’s mare Apple’s Jade has been aimed at the Champion Hurdle since winning the Irish equivalent in early February and with a 7lb allowance she is a different class of opponent from those that Buveur D’Air has beaten in the last two seasons.
Benie Des Dieux is one of Mullins’s best chances of the week and should take the Mares’ Hurdle while Discorama will take some beating in the National Hunt Chase later the same day.
Nicholls could come to the fore on Wednesday when Topofthegame (RSA Chase) and Friend Or Foe (Juvenile Handicap Hurdle) have major chances, and with Frodon seemingly set for Thursday’s Ryanair Chase, Nicholls’s Clan Des Obeaux, only seven but already a hugely impressive winner of the King George, looks a big price at around 9-2 in Friday’s Gold Cup.
Tuesday: 1.30 Aramon, 2.10 Duc Des Genievres, 3.30 Apple’s Jade, 4.10 Benie Des Dieux, 5.30 Discorama.
Wednesday: 1.30 Battleoverdoyen, 2.10 Topofthegame, 4.50 Friend Or Foe.
Thursday: 2.50 Frodon, 3.30 Paisley Park.
Friday: 2.50 Commander Of Fleet, 3.30 Clan Des Obeaux.
Leading trainer: Willie Mullins (7-2).
