Politics

Can Labour win the general election? Polls, odds and 7 seats to watch


According to the bookies and the polls, Labour face an uphill struggle to win the 2019 general election.

The money and the polling is with either a hung Parliament – where no party gets the 326 seats needed to govern – or a Tory majority. 

Labour will be hoping the chaos of Boris Johnson’s Brexit plan, and nine years of Tory austerity, turn voters to Jeremy Corbyn.

And as the party would not doubt remind us, back in 2017 they came from behind, were underestimated by the polls and gained dozens of Tory seats.

But there’s still a very long road to walk before Labour have any hope of an overall majority. And it will all rest on what happens locally, hundreds of times over.

So here’s what the polls and odds are saying – and 7 interesting seats to watch.

 

Odds on Labour winning the election


The odds of a hung parliament were cut for a second time just three days into the campaign.

According to Ladbrokes it was 5/6 that there is no overall majority, leaving a Tory victory to move out to 6/5 with the firm.

Jessica O’Reilly of Ladbrokes said: “It’s been an eventful couple of days since parliament dissolved, so perhaps it should come as no surprise that bets continue to pour in for a hung parliament.”

A Labour majority was way out at 14/1.

(Odds from Friday 8 November)

Polling on Labour


The polls have been extremely volatile throughout the general election campaign so far.

However, they do tend to follow a reasonable pattern – the Tories are always in the lead in the 30s %, Labour are usually about 8 to 15 points behind them, and the Lib Dems are behind them but in the high teens of percentage score.

To find the most up-to-date polls try our tracker here.

Read More

General election 2019

Can Labour win? 7 crucial seats to watch

Canterbury


Held by: Labour, Rosie Duffield
Who wants it? Tories
2017 result: Labour 25,572, Tory 25,385
Majority: 185

 

In 2017 Rosie Duffield made history when she ousted long-serving Tory MP Julian Brazier to win the true blue Canterbury seat in a shock victory for Labour.

The student vote, which was credited as a factor in the 2017 victory in Canterbury but the end of term at The University of Kent is December 13 – the day after the election posing a potential issue for Labour.

She is up against Anna Firth, a former barrister and mum-of-three, who doesn’t come from the seat but from Sevenoaks – also in Kent.

Ms Duffield, who is pro-Remain, is facing a challenge from the Liberal Democrats who are refusing to stand aside and whose rise in support could let the Tories in.

Crewe and Nantwich 

Held by: Labour, Laura Smith
2017 result: Labour 25,928, Tory 25,880
Majority: 48

Crewe is the most marginal seat in the north west where former teacher Laura Smith ‘David and Goliath’ moment, turning the election into a debate about school funding.

Since she won Ms Smith has built up a reputation as a bit of a firebrand famously calling for a national strike while on the stage at a fringe Labour Party conference event.

Laura Smith is one of Corbyn’s biggest supporter within the Parliamentary Labour Party.

But she has also rebelled on Brexit refusing to back a second referendum with a nod to her leave-backing voters.

 

Mansfield

Ben Bradley

Held by: Conservatives, Ben Bradley
2017 result: Tory 23,392, Labour 22,335
Majority: 1,057

Ben Bradley won the seat in 2017 – the first Tory to represent the seat since its creation in 1885.

Labour have clearly had their sights on it for months selecting their candidate Sonya Ward fairly early and featuring the seat in a number of their political broadcasts and Jeremy Corbyn’s speeches.

By all accounts the former Labour MP was a lacklustre campaigner who let the seat become a marginal from a more than 20,000 majority in 1997.

But Brexit will be a tricky issue on the doorstep.

Mansfield had the seventh highest leave vote in England and immigration was one of the big drivers behind the vote. 

Cambridge


 

Held by: Labour, Daniel Zeichner
2017 result: Labour 22,335 Tory 23,392,
Majority: 1,057

Cambridge represents a different kind of Brexit battleground for Labour.

The constituency’s MP Daniel Zeichner has been outspoken in his support for Remain causing him to defy the whip

But the Lib Dems are gaining ground in the seat and Labour fret that the shock… majority from 2017 could be slashed and even overturned.

As ever the city’s students are seen as crucial.

But, with the election called for December 12, more than a week after students of one of Cambridge University – one of the two large universities in the city – will already have broken up for Christmas.

 

Workington


Held by: Labour, Sue Hayman, shadow environment secretary
2017 result: Labour 21,317, Tory 17, 392
Majority: 3,925

Workington has been Labour for most of the last 100 years, except for three years in the 1970s.

Labour’s Sue Hayman won the in 2017 with 21,317 votes, ahead of Conservative Clark Vasey’s 17,392.

But an estimated six in 10 voters in the town voted Leave in 2016, which has put it on the radar of Tory strategists.

The seat shot into the headlines after right-wing think tank Onward branded the key Voter the Tories need to target as “Workington Man”

He is supposed to represent “middle England”, and he is white, older, likes rugby league and votes Labour.

He voted for Brexit and feels the country is moving away from his views.

But residents were pretty dismissive of the characterisation.

Earlier this week a local poll carried out by Survation, of just 506 residents,  predicted a win for Tory candidate Mark Jenkinson.

Gedling


 

Held by: Labour, Vernon Coaker
2017 result: Labour 26,833, Tory 22,139
Majority: 4,694

This seat should in theory be a classic Labour/Tory Midlands marginal but a certain Mr Vernon Coaker has skewed the data somewhat.

The former Deputy head has a huge personal vote and has managed to hold onto the seat since 1997 in good times and bad for his party.

Interestingly his leaflet seems to have very little reference to the Labour Party or Jeremy Corbyn with Coaker clearly banking his personal brand is more attractive than his party’s.

Discounting don’t-knows, Labour leads the Tories by 42% to 37% in the seat according to a Survation poll for the Economist.

While the Tories have attacked Mr Coaker for voting against Brexit in their attack leaflets.

He told the newspaper that the attack has backfired and he has had lots of support because  about 70% of those who voted Labour in 2017 backed Remain in the referendum.

Hastings and Rye


 

Held by: Independent, Amber Rudd. Former Tory work and pensions secretary.
2017 result: Tory 25,668, Labour 25,322
Majority: 346

Labour have had their sights set on the seat for years coming close in 2017 and are confident they could take it.

Amber Rudd held on to her seat with such a slim marginal that former Prime Minister Theresa May joked at a dinner that the then Home Secretary attended to see what her majority looked like in one room.

Since then Ms Rudd resigned as Work and Pensions Secretary from Boris Johnson’s cabinet over the Brexit deal and resigned from the Tory party over the treatment of the 21 Tory rebels who were stripped of the whip.

Perhaps worried about that slim majority and the difficulties of standing as an independent Ms Rudd has ruled herself out of standing this time round.

It means the Tories will be standing an unknown candidate against Labour’s Peter Chowney who contested the seat last time and has had time to build his profile. 





READ SOURCE

Leave a Reply

This website uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you accept our use of cookies.