Tonight’s cabinet reshuffle is being billed as modest by government insiders. The promotions and axeings will largely fall on middle-ranking ministers, providing new opportunities for the post-2015 intake, particularly female MPs.
The great offices of state are expected to remain untouched, with the chancellor, Sajid Javid, safe to deliver his budget in March. Other rising stars, like Rishi Sunak, chief secretary to the Treasury, are also due to stay put, albeit perhaps with an expanded role as Brexit planning ramps up.
Who’s tipped to go up
Michael Gove
The Cabinet Office minister and chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster is in line for a beefed-up role in charge of implementing Brexit and making sure everything runs smoothly after transition ends. He is unlikely to move department, but should take on more responsibility as a kind of “chief executive” overseeing Brexit. He had been tipped for a job as president of the COP26 climate negotiations, but people close
to him are now not expecting him to get that role because of his Brexit responsibilities.
Oliver Dowden
A former adviser to David Cameron, known informally as Olive, Dowden has climbed the ministerial ranks despite once giving an interview in his job as No 10 deputy chief of staff saying he would find out what was going on in politics by listening to the radio and spend his day in crisis management. Currently a Cabinet Office minister, he is tipped for a role such as culture secretary.
Lucy Frazer
The prisons minister is a former barrister who was previously the solicitor-general. Given her legal background and experience in the government’s law office, observers think she could get a bump up to attorney general but this prized role could be a crowded field with other women vying for the spot.
Victoria Atkins
Johnson is looking for more women to promote because he is expected to clear out several female cabinet ministers. Atkins is another former barrister and currently a junior home office minister. She could get an uplift to security minister with the added honour of sitting in cabinet.
Gillian Keegan
With a solid understanding of “red wall” voters, Keegan appears a natural fit for a promoted role in government. She is from Liverpool, started her business career as an apprentice in a car factory, and has been an MP Apprenticeship Ambassador and carried out various parliamentary private secretary roles.
Suella Braverman
The former chair of the European Research Group rejected Theresa May’s Brexit deal three times and has been an enthusiastic supporter of Boris Johnson. She was a barrister for 10 years before becoming an MP in 2015, and was a Brexit minister for a short spell. There is some speculation that she could also be in the running for attorney general.
Alok Sharma
As housing minister, he was largely responsible for the government’s response to the Grenfell Tower fire. He suffered criticism from the public but was also praised for his more human approach to the tragedy. A statement he delivered on the victims in the Commons moved him to tears. He is current secretary of state for international development. In the long term, this department could be rolled into the Foreign Office, so his expected promotion could be a pre-emptive move.
Anne-Marie Trevelyan
A long-term campaigner for Boris Johnson who campaigned to leave the EU, Trevelyan was recently appointed as a defence minister. Her expected promotion comes as rumours continue to swirl that the current defence secretary, Ben Wallace, could be moved in the reshuffle, leaving a vacancy at the top of the department.
Who’s tipped to go down
Andrea Leadsom
The former leadership contender and Vote Leave backer looked glum coming out of the cabinet that decided to go ahead with HS2 – a big issue for her constituents. She has been tipped to leave the government for weeks but appears to have marked her card further with a piece in the Telegraph calling on No 10 to maintain its gender
balance.
Theresa Villiers
The environment secretary was a big Vote Leave supporter who refused to back Theresa May’s deal. A former transport secretary and Northern Ireland secretary, she is expected to get her marching orders to make way for someone who will really get a grip on the difficult Brexit issues facing the food and farming industries.
Geoffrey Cox
The attorney general has been the subject of negative briefing for “pontificating” in cabinet and not being a “team player”. He may get a new role in charge of the government’s review of the constitution and judiciary, though, after criticising the “judicialisation of politics”.
Hanging in the balance
Liz Truss
Believed to get on well with the prime minister, who enjoys her buoyant enthusiasm for post-Brexit trade, she is unlikely to be axed from government entirely – a side-ways move is most likely. She has irked some with her cavalier approach to international visits, particularly a trip to Australia where she suggested British citizens could live and work in the country visa-free after Brexit.
Therese Coffey
Her appointment as work and pensions secretary came after Amber Rudd’s resignation and was seen by some as a temporary measure. Despite the scale of the brief and her experience in government, she may be among the group moved on to provide space for one of Johnson’s new generation of rising stars.
Stephen Barclay
He took on the role of Brexit secretary under Theresa May, but his department has since been axed after Britain’s departure from the EU on 31 January. The former health minister is thought to be well liked, adaptable and a loyalist, and likely to re-appear in a cabinet post, possibly as environment secretary.
Brandon Lewis
The former party chairman may fall victim to the clearout of senior ministers after occupying some of the bigger party jobs for eight years. Two years ago Lewis suggested that Johnson apologise for his Daily Telegraph column in which he compared women wearing burqas to letterboxes and then permitted a review into his conduct. This has allegedly not been forgotten.
Jacob Rees-Mogg
The leader of the Commons kept a low profile during the election after saying Grenfell Tower fire victims had not used “common sense” to escape the burning building. Despite his solid Brexiter credentials, there are feelings that he risks the party looking too out of touch, especially considering the influx of former Labour voters.
Ben Wallace
The defence secretary is an experienced government figure, having also served as a minister for security and Northern Ireland. He admitted reshuffles can be “brutal” but said this week he hopes to stay in post. His concerns and disagreements with senior figures over Huawei being used as a 5G provider are said to be behind his potential departure from cabinet.
Rising stars
Helen Whately
The former deputy party chair and now culture minister was regularly used by the party during the general election for media appearances. She is seen as reliable, is trusted, and part of the new generation of Tory women expected to have promising careers in the party.
Chris Skidmore
The universities minister is extremely well liked and highly regarded by the team in No 10 as being competent and diligent. After a spell as health minister and several years in the cabinet office under Theresa May, he is being tipped for a larger brief.
Paul Scully
The current deputy chairman is viewed as another media Trojan, fronting tricky questions on the Brexit deal and carrying out regular interviews during the general election. He has been an MP since 2015 and coordinated local elections for the party in London.
