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Britain’s Remainers are too divided


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The forthcoming European elections ought to be a golden opportunity for British politicians who want a second referendum and, ultimately, a reversal of the Brexit process.

But unfortunately for the Remain side, it’s an opportunity that is not being fully grasped.

With a little under two weeks to polling day, most of the campaigning momentum lies with Nigel Farage and his slick Brexit party.

His movement is united around his image; it is focused on an unrelenting message about a hard Brexit; and it is attracting large numbers of disillusioned Conservatives to big rallies.

By contrast, there are no fewer than five parties across the UK advocating Remain and a second referendum. These are the Liberal Democrats, Change UK, the Greens, the SNP and Plaid Cymru. And thus far they are making a lot less noise.

There had been expectations last month that three of these parties — the Lib Dems, Change UK and Greens — would join forces and run as a single pro-Remain alliance. However, they had too little time to thrash out a deal and MPs say the parties have very distinct identities.

Their differences were reinforced last night when pro-Remain parties failed to coalesce around a single candidate they could support in the Peterborough by-election for Westminster on June 6. They had looked as though they were about to converge around Femi Oluwole, a highly talented young Remainer, but again an accord fell through.

These differences are not fatal to the Remain cause. In the European elections, a key test (as Hugo Dixon argues) will be the total number of votes that are cast for all five pro-Remain parties taken together. This will give a good idea of how strong the popular momentum is behind staying in the EU.

In that sense, it doesn’t matter if all these pro-Remain parties are standing, as long as Remainers turn out and vote for one of them.

However, it’s going to be very difficult for these parties to win many seats in most European Parliament constituencies.

As the polling company YouGov argues, if an anti-Brexit pact had been formed between the Greens, Lib Dems and Change UK, then, on current polls, the pro-Remain alliance would have taken two seats in a notional six seat constituency — the same as Mr Farage’s party.

Instead, as things stand, the Brexit Party will take three seats in such a constituency, Labour two and the Conservatives one.

Ultimately, it is all down to momentum. At a critical moment, the Leave side in British politics has a dominant figurehead and a sense of purpose. As for Remain, it is still looking for a sense of unity and a commanding personality who isn’t called Tony.


Further reading

The future of Europe: disruption, continuity and change  Scottish Centre on European Relations

The European elections and Brexit UK in a Changing Europe


Hard numbers

Brexit is tearing apart support for big parties ahead of the European elections, according to an FT analysis. Conservatives are fleeing for the Brexit party and Labour voters are switching to Remain groups.



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