ritain appears to be “past that pandemic period” after symptomatic cases have fallen 70-fold since January, a top scientist said on Friday.
Professor Tim Spector, epidemiologist at King’s College London, said the country was entering the “endemic period” with low levels of infection and occasional outbreaks.
He said the risk would “never be zero” but he was confident the data was showing the country was “reaching herd immunity”.
He also encouraged older people who have had both jabs to feel “more free” to see others and said it was a “disgrace” that care home residents were still under severe restrictions.
Prof Spector told Sky News: “On January 1 we recorded around 70,000 new symptomatic cases a day, this week around 1,000 a day.
“So it’s a 70-fold drop and this means that although rates are low and the estimates are starting to get less accurate, we are 70-fold better than we were and we have one of the lowest rates in Europe at the moment and it’s still dropping slowly at around ten per cent over the last week.”
He said the average risk for someone of having symptomatic Covid is “really low at the moment” and estimated it was as low as one in 40,000.
Prof Spector added: “It looks like at the moment we are past that pandemic period and we are moving into what we call the endemic period where we get low levels of infection, and occasional outbreak but they don’t spread to the rest of the population and the general risk is low.”
There will still be different rates between regions, he said but added: “I know a lot of people are still very worried about coming out-of-doors or pubs opening, restaurants etc…but for me this is a very reassuring picture and we should be a bit more upbeat about it and focusing on the good news not just the bad news or the possibility of something bad happening in the future.”
Prof Spector did suggest the country may have to go back to a more “nuanced tier approach” to deal with differences between regions.
Encouraging older people to get their social lives back, he added: “I’m worried about older people who have had both vaccinations, should be much more free to see other people and get their social lives back and their mental health back, particularly those who have been kept prisoner in care homes, it’s a disgrace that they are still under these severe restrictions.”
