Brexit: What happens now as Corbyn poised to block Boris Johnson's election bid

Boris Johnson tonight announced his latest bid for a general election after he broke his pledge to get Brexit on October 31.

Then Labour MPs were told to block it.

But then Jeremy Corbyn came out and suggested it’s not a final decision after all.

It comes after Christmas Brexit Grinch Mr Johnson announced he wanted a snap poll on December 12 – and MPs would hold a vote on triggering it on Monday.

Yet Mr Corbyn indicated Labour might vote against. He said Labour first needed to take no-deal Brexit off the table – and that, he suggested, means full-blown amendments to the Prime Minister’s Brexit Bill.

Meanwhile, er, the right-wing Tory PM threatened to go on strike.

So what on earth is going on?

Here’s what has happened tonight and what happens now.

What did Boris Johnson announce?

First, let’s set the scene. This all comes after MPs voted down Boris Johnson’s bid to rush his whole Brexit deal through the Commons in three days. That, in turn, forced him to accept a likely Brexit delay from the EU.

Boris Johnson said he’ll allow Parliament more time to scrutinise his Brexit Withdrawal Agreement Bill – which, despite losing on the timetable, passed its first hurdle in the Commons earlier this week.

That would allow MPs some time to tackle problems in the 110-page Bill, which puts the Brexit deal into law.

Those problems include on workers’ rights, a border down the Irish Sea and crucially a ‘trapdoor’ to no-deal Brexit – which could allow it by default in 2021.

But his offer of more time came at a price.

The Prime Minister said he would only agree to a new timetable if two-thirds of all MPs (434) vote in favour of holding an election on Monday night.

He wants to hold that election on December 12, which would mean dissolving Parliament after the end of the day on November 6.

What happens now?

On Friday, EU leaders are expected to decide whether to grant a Brexit extension to the UK – and for how long. In all likelihood, they’re expected to approve a delay of up to three months to January 31.

On Monday MPs will vote on whether to hold an early election under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act (FTPA).

It requires a fixed threshold of two-thirds of MPs to back it – 434 votes in total. In other words, it can’t pass without at least some Labour support.

If the bid for an election passes, MPs will be offered until Parliament is dissolved on November 6 to scrutinise Boris Johnson’s Withdrawal Bill.

This leaves just a week and a half. Mr Johnson offered to extend Commons hours with “Fridays, weekends, the earliest starts and the latest finishes” as Cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg vowed: “We are willing to work 24 hours a day”. 

But it’s much, much less time than Labour asked for.

Then there’s a five week campaign leading up to an election on December 12.

Will Labour back an election?

It looks like they could kill off the bid for an election – but we don’t know for sure yet.

Oh really? So what’s going on with Labour?

OK, so. A few things have happened here.

First of all, whips instructed Labour MPs to abstain in the vote on Monday – or vote against if they want to.

In an election vote, this is basically the same thing because what counts is getting 434 MPs to vote FOR – otherwise, an election doesn’t happen.

Yet then, a short time later, Jeremy Corbyn suggested that this decision wasn’t final.

Instead, the Labour leader said, there would be a decision after 27 EU leaders announce on Friday whether they’ll delay Brexit.

He said: “The principle is take No Deal off the table, the EU answer tomorrow then we can decide.”

A Labour source later said the whip was a “holding” decision that could change in certain circumstances. However, the source could not explain what those circumstances are. One MP dismissed this as “absolutely not true”.

Jeremy Corbyn insisted: “There’s no confusion at all.”

Why are Labour poised to kill off the election?

Labour have always said they’ll back an election once the threat of no-deal Brexit is off the table.

The key problem is, the definition of “the threat of no-deal Brexit” changes from one person to another.

It always used to mean once EU leaders agreed to delay Brexit until January 31 – something they’re now preparing to do.

But Labour now says the definition includes the “trapdoor to no-deal” in 2021 that’s bound up in Boris Johnson’s Brexit Bill.

Under the “trapdoor” clause, MPs won’t get the chance to demand an extension to the Brexit transition period if the government doesn’t want Parliament to have a say. That could mean Britain crashing out on 31 December 2020.

Jeremy Corbyn said: “No deal is a threat that Boris Johnson has been using all along, and indeed it’s included in his legislation that’s before Parliament at the moment, the legislation that he’s paused.

“I want us to not crash out of the EU because of all the damage it will do to jobs across this country.”

Are Labour split on this?

Yes.

Corbyn-backing group Momentum swung behind an election saying “bring it on” – but dozens of MPs were poised to vote against an election no matter what.

Some shadow cabinet ministers including Jeremy Corbyn met between Commons votes as the drama unfolded.

One source said those present were “unanimous” that they shouldn’t “play Johnson’s game”.

They added: “He wants to bounce the Bill through with a no-deal trapdoor intact and get a general election where he hopes to be able to push that button afterwards”.

But a second source later said that was “completely wrong” because shadow ministers were “far from unanimous”.

And it was not a full meeting of shadow cabinet as several key members were not there – including Tom Watson, Keir Starmer, Emily Thornberry, Shami Chakrabarti and chair Ian Lavery.

Will other parties back an election?

So far, only the DUP have said they would back the election vote.

The SNP say they won’t vote for it, and would instead press for a vote of no confidence in the PM.

The Lib Dems say they want to see what the EU’s offer of a delay looks like today (FRI) before committing to a poll. Leader Jo Swinson said: “We’re not in the business of bailing out Boris Johnson”.

Plaid Cymru say their priority is a referendum on the terms of the deal.

Green MP Caroline Lucas warned there must not be an election until a “trapdoor to no-deal” in 2021 is closed in the Bill. “I hope MPs will oppose this dangerous and cynical manoeuvre,” she declared.

SNP MP Pete Wishart accused the Prime Minister of trying to “play games”. He said: “We will not be pushed today by this Prime Minister. He might be hoping the electorate will fall for his con tricks but the SNP certainly will not!”

What happens if MPs don’t back an election?

The Prime Minister’s spokesman has suggested Boris Johnson will leave his Withdrawal Agreement Bill on ice if he loses the election vote – effectively going on strike.

The spokesman told The Sun: “Nothing will come before Parliament but the bare minimum.

“We will pursue a general election every day from then onwards, and do everything we can to get it.”

Mr Johnson said he would “campaign every day and at every opportunity for a general election.” But after that, it’s unclear.

He has other ways to trigger a general election before Christmas, outlined below, but they’re all fraught with their own problems.

He could resign – admitting failure – and make way for a new leader. Or he could actually try to get his Brexit Bill through the Commons before January 31.

How is a general election called?

There are two main ways to call an early general election before 2023 – and Boris Johnson is opting for the first one below.

The first is to get two-thirds of all MPs in the entire House of Commons to back one under the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act. This requires 434 MPs – so for example, that could be all Tory MPs and all but about 100 Labour MPs. Boris Johnson tried this twice in September and failed both times.

The second is for the government to lose a vote of no confidence. The vote can be brought by Jeremy Corbyn and won by a simple majority (half of everyone who votes). This takes longer because before an election is triggered, there’s a 14-day window where smaller parties can jostle to form a caretaker government.

There’s a third way if Labour is refusing to back an election. This is for the government to bring a one-line Bill repealing the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act. The advantage is it only needs simple majorities to pass. But it takes longer and MPs can table amendments – such as forcing votes at age 16 or a second referendum.

Why does Boris Johnson want an election?

The PM has a majority of minus 45 so Parliament has repeatedly thwarted his plans.

From rushing his Brexit plan through the Commons in three days, to withholding secret no-deal Brexit plans, to, er, having an election, the Prime Minister’s schemes have been voted down at almost every turn.

With several polls putting the Tories more than 10 points ahead of Labour, the Prime Minister believes he can win back a Commons majority by fighting a whole election on the ticket of “delivering Brexit”.

He renewed calls for an election as the EU prepared to delay the Brexit deadline by three months to January 31.

The PM tried to characterise the delay – which breaks his own promises to the people – as Parliament’s fault saying an election is needed to break the deadlock.

Can EU citizens vote in a general election?

No.

EU citizens living in the UK can register to vote, and can vote in the following:

• European Parliament elections (though you have to fill out a form called UC1 to prove you’re not also voting in another country).
• Council elections
• Police and Crime Commissioners
• London mayoral and Assembly
• Northern Ireland and Welsh Assemblies and Scottish Parliament

But EU citizens cannot vote in UK Parliament elections – a general election – unless they are citizens of the Republic of Ireland, Cyprus or Malta. For more information click here.

When is the register to vote deadline?

It is always 12 working days before polling day. So if there’s an election on December 12, it will be on November 26.

What does an election mean for the Brexit deal?

Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal has been agreed by EU leaders and stands, regardless of an election, ready to be agreed.

The Bill to implement the deal is a different kettle of fish. It’s passed its first hurdle in the House of Commons – meaning it is still active and in progress until the moment Parliament is dissolved for an election.

If it’s completed before that election, then it becomes the law of the land. A future government can unpick it one way or the other, to make it harder or softer, but this could be a long and difficult process.

If it gets snarled up and doesn’t get Royal Assent before November 7, then it falls away – and MPs’ hard work will go to nothing.

A new PM would then have to come back, legally, from Square One with a new Bill when they open the new Parliament.

But it’s not at Square One in a political sense because the deal is already agreed with the EU and a Bill is already written.

If the Tories win, there is nothing to stop them bringing back the same Bill word-for-word to a more Brexity House of Commons.

Boris Johnson finally agreed a Brexit deal with the EU on 17 October 2019, though it still needs approval by MPs and is now on ice.

The 64-page list of amendments keeps a transition period up to 31 December 2020 and the £39bn divorce bill. But it scraps the Irish backstop, an insurance policy designed at preventing a hard border between Northern Ireland the Republic.

In the backstop’s place would effectively be ‘two borders’ in a hybrid system:

1. Northern Ireland and Britain would share a legal customs territory – technically forcing customs checks on goods crossing the 310-mile border with the Republic. But in practice, to avoid checks at the border, the checks will instead happen when goods reach Northern Ireland on the island of Ireland. Critics say this puts a customs border across the Irish Sea – more of this below.

 

2. Northern Ireland and the Republic would share some EU single market rules – forcing checks on manufactured and agricultural products crossing the Irish Sea.

The Northern Ireland Assembly – known as Stormont – will get a vote every four years on whether to let EU law continue. But this vote could be passed by a simple majority – denying the DUP a veto on staying under EU laws long-term.

Meanwhile commitments on workers’ rights are deprioritised – moved to the non-legally-binding Political Declaration for agreement later.

For a full explainer click here.