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Theresa May pledged to give MPs another chance to vote on her Brexit deal in the week beginning 3 June after an hour-long meeting with Jeremy Corbyn at which the Labour leader raised concerns about her ability to deliver on a cross-party deal.
The prime minister had said her promise held good with or without Labour’s backing, but it will have to be the latter, plainly, because – as long expected – talks between the two parties on a compromise Brexit plan promptly collapsed.
Each side blamed the other for the failure of the talks, with May saying the sticking point had been Labour’s division over a second referendum and the opposition insisting the government had been unwilling to compromise.
After Conservative backbenchers forced May to set a timetable for her departure in the first week of June, Labour noted that her imminent demise meant there was no guarantee any promises would be kept by a successor, such as Boris Johnson.
The prime minister will, however, ask her cabinet to sign off a package of Brexit concessions this week as she gears up for one last bid to win over parliament with what she called a “new, bold offer to MPs across the House of Commons”, hoping the Tories’ forecast drubbing at the hands of the Brexit party will focus minds.
With Labour also heading for a trouncing, Corbyn defended the party’s confusing bid for both leavers and remainers, while Channel 4 infuriated Nigel Farage by alleging the Brexit party leader had been funded to the tune of £450,000 after the referendum by insurance tycoon Arron Banks.
What next?
May has committed to giving MPs a vote on her key piece of Brexit legislation, the withdrawal agreement bill, possibly incorporating some of the “progress” made in talks with Labour on issues including workers’ rights and environmental standards, in the first week of June.
She is discussing with ministers whether to hold more indicative parliamentary votes before then, with the idea that whatever emerges also be included in the bill. The previous two sets of indicative votes, however, instigated by backbenchers, produced no Brexit solution with a majority in parliament.
At the same time, the government is reopening discussions with the Democratic Unionist party about how to reassure them the deal would not lead to a border in the Irish Sea, as well as speaking to Tory leavers with concerns about the Irish backstop.
The general assumption, however, is that the deal will not pass and attention will soon shift to a Tory leadership election. This could take up much of the summer, with the odds narrowing on a hard-Brexit MP, such as Johnson, winning.
Such a leader would want to draw up a new departure plan, take it to Brussels and maybe put it to MPs. But the parliamentary arithmetic will be the same, as will the EU27s position, so a general election could follow once the new prime minister reaches their own impasse.
Britain has until 31 October to pass the legislation necessary to enact Brexit or come up with an alternative policy.
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In the Observer, Andrew Rawnsley says the middle ground no longer exists over Brexit – it’s all or nothing now:
The collapse of these cross-party talks is of a piece with the narrative arc since the referendum in the summer of 2016. For nearly three years, the scope for compromise has steadily shrunk as opinion on both sides has become more radicalised. Advocates of Brexit who once said they’d be content to be out of the EU but stay within the single market have since transmogrified into adamantine no-dealers. Remainers who might once have settled for a halfway house will now accept nothing other than a second referendum. Everyone involved in the Tory-Labour talks knew that any kind of compromise would leave vast numbers of voters hugely unhappy: another factor dooming the effort to failure. For many Brexiters, any outcome which is not the most purist version of that enterprise will now be seen as a betrayal. For many remainers, any result other than the reversal of Brexit will be intolerable. The middle ground, such as it was, has become scorched earth. The chances of this concluding with no Brexit or a no-deal Brexit are both rising sharply.
And Jonathan Freedland argues that remain voters have no choice but to ignore Labour in the European elections:
You can spend many an hour combing through the speeches and policy statements, and if you do manage to divine a coherent Labour stance, it’ll be that Labour wants to leave the EU but to close the door nicely, rather than storming out in a huff. It requires a heroic act of self-delusion to see a vote for Labour as a vote for remain … Thursday presents a rare opportunity. Shorn of the pressure to choose a government, unshackled from the winner-takes-all unfairness of first-past-the-post, we can, for once, follow our convictions. If you believe that Britain’s destiny is to live and work with our neighbours, rather than to be an outpost of xenophobic Trumpism, a closed island whose national emblem will be the grinning, gurning face of Nigel Farage, then you have several good choices. But, sad to say, this time Labour is not one of them.
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Gorgeous George on the impending European elections cataclysm:
George Galloway
(@georgegalloway)Eggs milk shakes liberal apoplexy Goldfinger Brown former Trotskyite Marr are all merely adding to the sense that all the applecarts will be upended on Thursday. The Remaniacs sowed the wind and now they will reap the whirlwind. They deserve every bit of what’s coming #Brexit
