The Brexit crisis is tearing into the support for both main UK political parties, according to an FT analysis of recent polls, with most Tory voters shifting to more Eurosceptic groups and over a quarter of their Labour counterparts switching to pro-Remain parties.
The analysis indicates that the Conservatives are on course for the lowest share in history for the governing party in any national vote, principally because of defections to Nigel Farage’s newly founded Brexit party.
“Voters who switch to the Brexit party this time could start a habit,” said Anand Menon, director of The UK in a Changing Europe, a think-tank. He argued that the Conservatives’ expected “absolute mauling” would scare the party away from holding another national vote — such as an early general election — while the UK remains a member of the EU.
According to the poll of polls, which includes surveys by YouGov, ComRes, Opinium and Survation, the Tories are on course to win just 14 per cent of the vote in the May 23 European elections — third place behind the Brexit party, which is on 29 per cent, and Labour with 25 per cent.
This compares with the previous worst performance by a ruling party — by Labour in the 2009 European elections, when then prime minister Gordon Brown’s party scored 15 per cent, compared with 27 per cent for the Conservatives and 16 per cent for the anti-EU UK Independence party, at the time led by Mr Farage.
In the 2014 elections to the European Parliament, Ukip came first with 26.6 per cent.
Mr Menon said that the Brexit party “quite possibly has higher to go,” since surveys for the British Election Study, the leading academic resource on political affiliations, indicated that the number of so-called “Ukip-interested voters . . . is in the high thirties.”
Mr Farage has now split with Ukip, and his new Brexit party is both inheriting much of his old group’s support and capitalising on Tory voters’ dismay over Britain’s delayed departure from the EU. If the UK had left the bloc on schedule on March 29, the European elections would not have taken place in the country, but Britain is now not due to leave until October 31.
According to the FT poll of polls, just over half of voters who backed the Conservatives in the 2017 general election now intend to vote for the Brexit party.
Another one in eight former Tories says they will vote for the Liberal Democrats, the Greens or the newly formed Change UK, which all oppose Brexit.
In total, more than two in three people who voted Conservative two years ago say they will not vote for the Tories in this month’s election, and will instead switch to groups that either back the hardest of Brexits, such as Ukip and the Brexit party, or are pro-Remain.
Labour is also on course to lose 13 per cent of its 2017 backers to the Brexit Party and Ukip.
But Jeremy Corbyn’s refusal to promise a second EU referendum in all circumstances appears to have contributed to Labour’s principal loss of support: defections to parties with a clear pro-Remain message.
Of the people who backed Labour in 2017, 28 per cent now intend to vote for the Greens, the Liberal Democrats, Change UK, the Scottish National party or Plaid Cymru.
These five anti-Brexit parties have increased their vote share, which has risen from 21 per cent of all voters at the beginning of April to 29 per cent at the end of the month.
But overall they trail the pro-Brexit groups, which include Mr Farage’s party, Ukip and the Conservatives — but not Labour — and together are on course to win around 46 per cent of the vote.
