Cross-party talks between the Conservative and Labour parties to try break the Brexit deadlock continued today as ministers returned from the Easter weekend. Downing Street said “progress needs to be made urgently” but the talks were “difficult”. If talks produce nothing, the UK will need to partake in EU elections in May, and parties are ramping up campaign efforts.
Shadow Brexit secretary Keir Starmer said “fundamental issues” remained between his party and ministers on a number of key issues.
And Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said the Government “really needs to move on” and change its Brexit agreement to solve the impasse.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Theresa May continues fending off growing calls to step down.
Grassroots Tories are to hold an extraordinary general meeting at the National Conservative Convention in May – if a lack of confidence is shown, the pressure on Mrs May to step down would be crushing.
READ MORE: How do the European Parliament elections work? Everything you should know
So what’s up next?
Here are the key dates to watch in the coming weeks and months:
‣ APRIL 25 – Deadline for political parties to apply for running in the EU election
‣ MAY 2 – Local elections
Northern Ireland and parts of England will head to the polls for local elections.
This will be important for the Tories on a central Government level: if they do badly in the locals, it strengthens the mandate for a general election.
‣ MAY 23 – EU elections
The UK will take part in the European Parliament elections on May 23, unless the deal is passed before that date.
It has been suggested the Government could notify the EU of intentions to participate in the MEP elections, and then the Prime Minister will try push her Brexit deal through Parliament before May 22 and therefore, call the elections off at the last minute.
Getting the House of Commons’ approval for the draft treaty is still a big challenge — unless the talks between the Conservatives and Labour this month produce a breakthrough.
READ MORE: EU elections polls show Brexit SURGE – How EU could be at mercy of Brexiteers
‣ JUNE 1 – Brexit day?
If the UK does not take part in the EU elections in May, it will leave the EU on June 1 with or without a deal.
The date is relevant as the new EU Parliament is sworn in on June 2, and if the UK isn’t filling seats it should be out before then.
Under the legal terms of the EU’s decision at the recent Brexit summit, if the UK agrees the deal and manages to get it ratified into law at any point, “the withdrawal will take place on the first day of the following month”.
So if Mrs May manages to get the deal through the Commons in May, Britain would leave the EU with a deal on June 1.
If MPs still do not back Mrs May’s deal, but no elections to the European Parliament have taken place, June 1 will mark a no-deal exit.
‣ JUNE 20 – 21 – EU summit
Leaders have pledged to take stock of Brexit progress at their June meeting, but are already playing down the importance of the review amid the constant can-kicking of Brexit and political finger-pointing.
EU leaders will have a full agenda, as they meet to decide the presidencies of the European Commission and the European Council of member states.
They have secured guarantees from Mrs May of “sincere co-operation” — a pledge not to hijack crucial EU business with the interminable Brexit deadlock.
‣ SEPTEMBER 29 – OCTOBER 2 – Tory conference
Few believe Mrs May will be able to hold on to the premiership until this point, but if she does she will be under huge pressure to allow a leadership contest to take place by the time of the party’s annual gathering.
‣ OCTOBER 17 – 18 – EU summit
This is the last scheduled EU summit before the UK’s departure day, and is likely to be Brexit-centric.
‣ OCTOBER 31 – Brexit day?
If the UK takes part in EU elections, this will become the new Brexit day.
EU leaders insist that, by this point, the UK must choose whether to ratify the exit treaty, opt for a no-deal Brexit, or cancel its departure.
The deadline is not a random one – as French President Emmanuel Macron pointed out, the end of October is the beginning of a new five-year political cycle in Brussels, as a new European Commission takes office.
If the UK has its 73 seats in the EU Parliament filled, these MEPs would leave their post.
27 seats would be reallocated to 14 other member states who are underrepresented, and the rest will be set aside with the possibility of being allocated to any new member states that join in the future.
But the possibility of another delay beyond this point still cannot be excluded.
Once this passes, we’ll have a clearer picture of the timeline beyond this date.
