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Brexit has become the enemy of the UK union


Boris Johnson declares himself a champion of the UK union, a prime minister who wants to strengthen “the ties that bind our United Kingdom”. Mr Johnson also promises to leave the EU — “do or die” — by the end of October. Just days in office, he has flatly dismissed the withdrawal deal agreed with Brussels by Theresa May, and ordered Whitehall to draw up plans for Britain to crash out of the EU without a deal.

The prime minister’s twin ambitions are on a dangerous collision course. Brexit in any shape promises to weaken the bonds between the nations of the British Isles. In the extreme form that seems to be the working assumption by Mr Johnson’s new administration, it will impose intolerable strains. This could set in train a process that ends with the break-up of the union. Mr Johnson’s promise of some extra Westminster funding scarcely measures up to the political forces he seems ready to unleash.

Visiting Scotland at the start of a tour to polish his unionist credentials (Belfast and Cardiff are also on the itinerary), Mr Johnson said he still wants an amicable agreement with the EU27. But he flatly rejected again any “backstop” clause to ensure the preservation of the open border between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland. The prime minister knows this is an impossible demand. The open border is integral to the Good Friday Agreement that brought peace to Northern Ireland. The Republic of Ireland and the rest of the EU have rightly made it a red line.

Inconveniently, the start of Mr Johnson’s tour coincided with the publication of a blunt, independent analysis prepared by the Institute for Government think-tank. The prime minister’s no-deal Brexit, it said, would put “unprecedented pressure” on the UK union. Northern Ireland would suffer a double blow: its economy would take a disproportionate hit because of its close integration with the Republic, while political stability would be jeopardised by an inevitable hardening of the border. Opinion could begin to tip towards Irish reunification.

If Mr Johnson harboured any doubts as to the effects in Scotland, Ruth Davidson, the leader of the Scottish Conservatives, will have removed them. Ms Davidson, the architect in recent years of a Tory revival in Scotland, has strongly criticised Mr Johnson’s ultimatum. She has also been angered by his decision to sack as Scottish secretary the middle-of-the-road Tory David Mundell, in favour of the hardline Brexiter Alister Jack.

Ms Davidson fears, and rightly so, that the economic chaos of a no-deal Brexit would play directly into the hands of Nicola Sturgeon’s Scottish Nationalist party. Support for the SNP has been rising and demand for a second referendum on Scottish independence could become irresistible.

The IFG report debunked the idea that the government could properly prepare for a cliff-edge Brexit. The EU would set unilaterally the terms of any emergency arrangements, the government could not compel business to prepare for tariffs and regulatory controls, and ministers would lose all bargaining leverage once Britain had left the EU.

Mr Johnson and his fellow Brexiters like to talk about “the will of the people” because of the 52:48 per cent UK-wide majority in the 2016 referendum. In its latest guise, Brexit more closely resembles an English nationalist project. In Scotland some 62 per cent, and in Northern Ireland 56 per cent, voted to remain in the EU. Riding roughshod over these views by crashing out of the EU would be more than an act of gross political irresponsibility. It would be a signal of Mr Johnson’s contempt for the union.



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