Today MPs are due to debate all stages of the early parliamentary general election bill, the legislation announced by Boris Johnson last night after he failed for the third time to get two thirds of MPs (the threshold) to vote for an early election under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act procedure. A bill can pass the Commons with a majority of one, and with the Liberal Democrats and the SNP in principle committed to an early election, and even Labour warming to the idea, there is a strong possibility that it will pass, and that by tonight we will be able to plan for an election at some point in the week beginning Monday 9 December.
But it is not in the bag yet. The bill has still not been published, and the government and opposition parties are divided over the date of a December poll. Ministers want it on Thursday 12, whereas the Lib Dems and the SNP want it on Monday 9.
More importantly, most of the parties are deeply split over the wisdom of an early poll. Even the SNP parliamentary party, which is normally a model of unity and discipline and never normally divides over anything, has got one of its MPs going around saying the party’s plan would be like “a birthday present and a Christmas present [for Johnson[ rolled into one”.
And the reason for this heightened uncertainty? Decisions about whether or not to back an early election are almost always driven by self-interest, but no one knows which party is likely to benefit most from an early poll. The psephologists have already been warning that predicting the election will be “extremely difficult”, because the electorate is more volatile than it has ever been in the post-war period. To add to the complexity, no one can be certain how the electorate will respond to the Brexit delay, whether the campaign will be dominated by Brexit or by domestic issues, and how voters will respond to being asked to go to the polls a fortnight before Christmas. MPs and party leaders may have their own theories as to who would gain most from an early election, but there is no consensus and no rock-solid evidence; basically, it’s all guesswork.
The parties are expected to whip the votes this afternoon but, with MPs voting on their own job prospects, we might get more rebellions than usual, which is another reason why the bill could fail. In the Conservative party Johnson is facing a backlash against his decision to go for an election, and this morning there are signs that it is growing.
May I ask the leader of the house what we are to say to constituents and others about the fact that we may be able to find time for a five to six-week general election campaign and then the rigmarole of forming a government and yet not for bringing back the withdrawal bill?
- The Tory MP William Wragg said in the Commons last night that “many” Conservative MPs supported the plan put forward by Frank Field in an early day motion, saying that Johnson should instead set aside 14 days to pass the withdrawal agreement bill.
- Johnson is also being told in private by some of his MPs that he should press with the withdrawal agreement bill, and deliver Brexit, before holding an election. This is from an analysis by the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg.
One MP told me that a group of them made it clear to the PM in person on Monday night that they were deeply unhappy at what one of them described as him “being churlish, and taking his bat and ball home”, when he achieved what was said to be impossible by getting a deal in the first place, only to give up when the timetable for it was rejected last week.
Mocking the prime minister’s own slogan, the MP joked “that doesn’t exactly look like trying to get Brexit done”.
- And this morning Philip Hammond, the former Tory chancellor who now sits as an independent having had the whip removed, told the Today programme that he was appalled by Johnson’s decision to go for an election before delivering Brexit. He said:
If [Boris Johnson] has pressed on with a sensible timetable motion, say allowing the Commons five days to consider the bill, it would be out by now and into the House of Lords, and we would be well on our way to being able to leave the European Union, certainly by the end of November, perhaps earlier.
But because he insisted that it all had to be done by 31 October, something that we now know can’t happen, it is the government itself that has been blocking Brexit. And the idea that now we would use our precious time to halt all of this process for five or six weeks, and go out and have a general election, frankly appals me. I think the government is trying to create a narrative that parliament is blocking Brexit and therefore we need an election. But that is simply untrue. Parliament signalled very clearly last week that it was prepared to press on with the Brexit bill, provided it had a reasonable timetable to do so.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9.30am: Boris Johnson chairs cabinet.
12pm: Downing Street lobby briefing.
After 12.30pm: MPs begin debating the early parliamentary general election bill. It is due to pass all its Commons stages today.
2.45pm: Philip Rycroft, former permanent secretary at the Brexit department, gives evidence to the Commons foreign affairs committee.
As usual, I will be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web, although I will be focusing mostly on MPs debating the early election bill. I plan to publish a summary when I wrap up.
You can read all the latest Guardian politics articles here. Here is the Politico Europe roundup of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads.
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