Prime Minister Theresa May’s deal was rejected by the House of Commons for a third time, by a margin of 58 – significantly less than last time, but still not enough. The Prime Minister said the outcome was “a matter of profound regret”, adding she feared Parliament was “reaching the limits of this process in this House”. So what could happen next?
On Monday, MPs will hold another round of ‘indicative votes’ to see if they can find any route which commands a majority.
There is also a good chance the Prime Minister will try put her deal to the House for yet another vote.
If the House agrees a way forward, or if the deal is rejected for the fourth time, there are a few possible outcomes.
We could see a longer extension on Article 50, renegotiations, a no deal Brexit, a general election, or a second referendum.
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There are increasing calls across the political spectrum for a second referendum, and a growing ‘Put it to the People’ movement, which saw hundreds of thousands march in London last weekend.
However, at the Centre for Brexit Studies annual conference in London today, one expert made a strong argument why a second referendum wouldn’t work, regardless of which side of the political spectrum you’re on.
Professor Vernon Bogdanor, political author and one of Britain’s foremost constitutional experts, said: “As we know a referendum can’t be brought about by a parliamentary motion, it requires an act of Parliament, and that act takes some time.
“The one for the 2016 referendum took seven months to get through parliament. And this could take even longer.
“And what options are to be presented? Should it be Theresa May’s deal or a no deal on the table? Some would say a customs union or internal market should be on the ballot.
“The great danger of a referendum is it might not resolve the problem – it wouldn’t resolve the problem, obviousl,y if leave were to win again, but if remain were to win it would only resolve the problem if there was a very large remain majority with a very high turnout.
“I think that’s probably unlikely. What’s more possible is a small remain majority – let’s say it’s 52/48 like last time.
“Perhaps on a lower turnout than last time. The turnout last time was 73 percent, the highest since 1992.
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“And the turnout was lower in the remain areas than the leave areas. The leavers were much keener to come out and vote than the remain.
“Now if you had a narrow remain majority on a lower turnout than last time, the Brexiteers would say this isn’t legitimate, let’s have another third referendum to finally settle the issue.
“And it’s possible some Brexiteers might adopt the strategy of boycotting the referendum to lower the turnouts further and weaken its legitimacy.”
Increasingly, it’s looking like revoking Article 50 would be a more likely option, despite the Government’s insistence this would never happen.
The DUP, who prop up the minority in the House and are key to today’s loss in the House, are so against the deal and what it means for Northern Ireland, they would consider staying.
The DUP’s leader at Westminster leader, Nigel Dodds, told the BBC: “I would stay in the European Union and remain, rather than risk Northern Ireland’s position. That’s how strongly I feel about the Union.”
