Brexit analysis: No Deal would be a poignant symbol of Brexit failure… but the game is far from over

As sure as the leaves fall in autumn, EU summits have been marked by British Prime Ministers clashing with French presidents.

It has happened between Margaret Thatcher and Francois Mitterrand, Tony Blair and Jacques Chirac, and David Cameron and Nicolas Sarkozy, normally but far from exclusively over how to fund the European bloc.

Boris Johnson was not at this week’s EU summit in Brussels, as the UK has formally left.

But the usual bust-up still happened, it just had to be done by loud hailers across the Channel.

French president Emmanuel Macron vowed not to “sacrifice” his fishermen to get a Brexit trade deal and led a stiffening of the EU’s negotiating position.

Mr Johnson hit back and threatened a No Deal Brexit at the end of December which would be deeply damaging to the UK, and also many EU countries, though considerably less for most of them.

The question is how seriously to take the rhetoric or will it just blow over.

The Prime Minister’s stark words do take the UK closer to the transition period ending on December 31 with no trade deal struck with the EU.

But just as happened with the Withdrawal Agreement, it may be that it is only when both parties are starring into the abyss that they come to (their senses) a deal.

EU leaders think they have the stronger hand as they do not seriously believe the Government will plunge Britain into such a potentially catastrophic scenario for the economy in the middle of the Covid-19 crisis.

However, they risk being reckless by miscalculating how Mr Johnson, egged on by hard-line Brexiteers close to him, may act.

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen appeared to swiftly seek to intervene in the latest spat, saying a Brussels team would be heading to London next week to “intensify” talks, a demand made by the UK side to continue the negotiations beyond the Prime Minister’s October 15 deadline.

Mr Johnson also did not close the door to more negotiations, provided there was a “fundamental change” in the EU’s approach.

So, the game is far from over.

The Prime Minister will play hard-ball.

But the full implications of a No Deal are coming clearer day by day, including the prospect of toilets being set up on roads in Kent for desperate truckers, queuing for hours to get to Dover to cross to Calais.

It would be a poignant symbol of Brexit failure, and a far cry from the bygone days when Britain used to own Calais.