Brecon and Radnorshire by-election explained: The pivotal vote that could leave Boris Johnson’s Government with a majority of one

The Government’s working majority could be slashed to just one if the Conservatives fail to win a pivotal by-election.

With the Brecon and Radnorshire seat up for a vote on August 1, the Conservatives could see the opposition gain another MP in the Commons.

This would mean the Government majority, already made up with a confidence and supply motion from the DUP and further reduced by recent defections, would take a further hit.

Such a result would make it increasingly difficult for the Government of the day to pass its will, as any Conservative rebels voting in defiance of the whip would diminish the government’s majority.

The Standard looks at key factors of the by-election below.

Why is there going to be a by-election?

The by-election was called after a petition unseated MP Chris Davies, following his conviction for making a false expenses claim.

At Westminster Magistrates’ Court the 51-year-old admitted submitting two false expenses invoices for nine photographs costing £700 to decorate his new office.

Boris Johnson visited Brecon and Radnorshire in support of Chris Davies (Jacob King/PA Wire)

More than 10,000 people signed a petition for him to be removed from his seat. He was later reselected by the Conservative Party to run in the by-election.

Mr Davies was first elected to his post in 2015 and re-elected in 2017, with a majority of around 8,000 over the Liberal Democrat candidate.

After being selected to run, he said: “I would like to thank members of my local association for supporting me, and putting their faith in me once again.

“I look forward to campaigning over the next few weeks and winning back this seat, so that I can continue to work hard for the people of Brecon and Radnorshire.”

What does it mean for the Government?

The Conservative party holds 310 voting seats in the House of Commons, it has 311 MPs but by convention the deputy speaker does not vote.

Previously, the party formed a Government with the DUP confidence and supply agreement.

This saw it take 10 DUP MPs to add to its number, giving the Government 320 voting seats at present, compared to the opposition’s 318 votes.

The Government could see its majority reduced further (EPA/UK PARLIAMENTARY RECORDING UNIT)

Therefore, if the Conservatives lose the seat in Brecon and Radnorshire, the opposition number would reach 319, giving the Government an effective majority of just one.

The number also excludes Sinn Fein MPs, who do not take their seats in accordance with the party’s stance to abstain from Parliament, the speaker and the opposition’s two deputy speakers.

This would be the smallest majority Government there has been in the UK since John Major led a minority in the 90s.

Who is running in the election?

There are six candidates standing for election, ranging from the leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats to a member of the Monster Raving Loony Party.

These are:

Chris Davies – Welsh Conservatives
Tom Davies – Welsh Labour
Jane Dodds – Welsh Liberal Democrats
Des Parkinson – Brexit Party
Liz Phillips – UKIP
Lady Lily The Pink – Monster Raving Loony Party

Who is the favourite?

Throughout the contest the Lib Dems have looked the most likely to take the seat.

They are boosted by a Remain alliance which sees Plaid Cymru and the Green Party not contesting the seat, in the hope their absence will add numbers for the anti-Brexit Lib Dems.

A poll from Number Crunch Politics also indicated the Liberal Democrats as favourites, predicting a 17 per cent swing from the Conservatives to them.

However, there has been speculation of support for more Brexit favouring parties, with the constituency having voted in favour of leave in the referendum.

Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party will contend the seat (EPA)

There were reports of an earlier pro-Brexit pact between the Brexit Party and Conservatives being put in place, though this was not acted upon if it were discussed, with both parties putting candidates forward.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson said “only the Conservatives” can “deliver Brexit” as he attempted to dissuade voters from backing the Brexit Party.

He said the election is between his party and the Liberal Democrats.