FT subscribers can click here to receive Brexit Briefing every day by email.
In the ballroom of the Hôtel du Palais in Biarritz, Boris Johnson performed his best turn as a statesman to date. At last year’s G7 summit of world leaders, he was the effective broker between the erratic instincts of President Donald Trump and the calmer orthodoxy of other western leaders. As one EU diplomat noted at the time, Mr Johnson’s success at jaw-jaw was a reminder of the UK’s unique role in bridging the interests of Europe and America.
That role was always going to face further strain, and the crisis over Mr Trump’s decision to assassinate Qassem Soleimani has delivered the British prime minister the first foreign policy dilemma of his new government (and just six days into the new year). Downing Street is acting cautiously: does it praise the White House for neutralising an enemy of both nations? Or does it criticise Mr Trump for actions that some have described as reckless?
Mr Johnson, as per his default style, is trying to have it both ways. After spending Sunday afternoon attached to the telephone, he released a statement stating that the UK “will not lament his death” but warned “all calls for retaliation or reprisals will simply lead to more violence in the region and they are in no one’s interest”. The prime minister added he would work with “all sides to encourage de-escalation”.
Whether Washington will heed his advice will be seen in the coming days if Iran retaliates and Mr Trump does not opt for de-escalation. What will Mr Johnson do in this instance? Mr Trump’s alarming threat to target cultural heritage sites in Iran appears to be something of a red line for Downing Street — and the rest of the international community. If this occurred, he would have no choice but to side with Europe over the US.
The Iran crisis could be the first moment Brexit Britain has to choose between Europe and the US. Secretary of state Mike Pompeo has already criticised the Johnson government for not sufficiently supporting the killing of Soleimani. How deep this strain of tension runs will be seen when foreign secretary Dominic Raab arrives in DC later this week. Mr Raab’s aim will be to hold together relations, but events before then could take it out of his hands.
If Pentagon officials struggled to temper the president’s trigger-happy instincts, Mr Johnson will struggle too. If Mr Trump does not react calmly, it would further raise questions about how special the “special relationship” is between the UK and US in the era of an America First administration. So far, Mr Johnson has avoided having to answer that question.
Diplomacy is the challenge facing Mr Johnson today, but he will face similar challenges when it comes to the Brexit trade talks this year. His political instincts — and the urgings of several senior cabinet colleagues — are to pursue a closer relationship with America. Yet economic and trading realities will keep pushing the UK close to Europe. Tricky choices have to be answered over the UK’s future and Mr Johnson has yet to hint which way he will go.
That first Trump-Johnson dance in Biarritz was pulled off with surprising ease. He will hope to repeat that trick in the coming months, but all the indications suggest that the second and subsequent performances will prove more difficult.
Further reading and listening
UK election settles business nerves but caution remains
“The outcome of the election has already brought greater certainty for businesses. In a post-election poll of members, the Institute of Directors lobby group said that confidence had reached its highest level since the referendum. Confidence in the economy for December 2020 soared to a positive net balance of 21 per cent from negative 18 per cent in November, while directors’ confidence in their own companies increased to positive 46 per cent. A net balance of 18 per cent expected investment levels to increase.” (Daniel Thomas, FT)
Podcast
Interview special: James Blitz The big stories from 28 years at the FT — Blair and Brown, Iraq and Brexit. After 28 years at the FT, Whitehall editor James Blitz looks back on his time as political editor and defence editor, and the stories he has covered — including Tony Blair’s election victory, the Iraq war, the fights with Gordon Brown, the future of the armed forces, the civil service and Brexit. Presented by Sebastian Payne and produced by Anna Dedhar. Listen here
The Tories now face a dilemma: change, or lose your new voters (John Harris, The Guardian)
Hard numbers
UK services activity picks up on greater Brexit clarity
