By Wednesday afternoon, it will be clear whether Boris Johnson has a deal to put to parliament on its “super Saturday” sitting or not. Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, will inform members whether the prime minister has conceded enough on the Irish border for there to be a draft treaty to present to leaders when they hold a summit on Thursday.
Are we close to a deal?
The prime minister has made a series of major U-turns in recent weeks. That gives EU officials some hope he will continue in this vein. A final push has been demanded by Barnier. If Downing Street thinks it is a step too far, and reverts to the bellicose language of Johnson’s senior aide, Dominic Cummings, then all bets are off.
What does the EU want?
Barnier has said the UK needs to table legal text, and it needs to be based on the February 2018 Northern Ireland-only backstop. That proposal – rejected by Theresa May as a constitutional outrage that no British prime minister could accept – would keep Northern Ireland in the single market for goods and the EU’s customs territory. The arrangement would cease to be in force if a future trade deal offered an alternative solution for avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland.
Barnier is open to tweaking that model, however. A consent mechanism, under which Stormont has a say over alignment with the EU, is being negotiated. It has also been suggested that Northern Ireland could de jure remain in the UK’s customs territory rather than the European Union’s. Barnier is insistent that, de facto, the EU’s full customs code needs to be applied to goods coming from Great Britain into Northern Ireland.
Will Boris Johnson agree?
A similar deal was blown up by the Democratic Unionist party and the Brexiter MPs in the European Research Group in 2018 but both seem to be giving Johnson more leeway than they afforded Theresa May. The DUP leader, Arlene Foster, was in Downing Street on Monday evening for 90 minutes. Any arrangement that creates checks and controls, and potentially a tariff border between Britain and Northern Ireland, is likely to be problematic. But the UK could establish a rebate system to ensure businesses in Northern Ireland are not financially disadvantaged. They could also arguably claim that the UK, “whole and entire”, would leave the EU’s customs territory.
What happens if the prime minister does not yield further?
There are two possibilities: deadlock if Johnson decides to walk out on the summit and attacks Brussels for intransigence, or further negotiations to talk around the problem next week. The latter would open up the possibility of a second EU summit, perhaps on 29 October, for a potential deal to be signed off by leaders. A Brexit extension beyond 31 October is inevitable either way.
What is the most likely outcome?
For all the noise from Downing Street, Johnson has been a pliant negotiator with Brussels in recent days. There is some evidence that he now wants to put a deal to parliament on 19 October, come what may. But if the last three years of Brexit have taught us anything it is that fudge, delay and prevarication are always the most likely course. Berlin and France do not want to rush. Talks may well continue past this week.
