As is virtually the case at any Grand Slam involving Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, history and records are once again on the line at the Australian Open.
Federer’s status as the most successful male player throughout the ages – a position he’s been the sole occupant of since winning his 15th major title at Wimbledon in 2009 – is now under serious threat after world No. 1 Nadal moved to within one title of his 20-Slam haul by winning his 19th major at the US Open.
The Australian Open has been Federer’s most favourable hunting ground since moving beyond Pete Sampras’ total of 14 Grand Slam titles – picking up three of his last five Slam wins at Melbourne Park – but it remains one-time winner Nadal’s worst major statistically.
Should he buck that trend, he will not only equal Federer’s 20-strong Slam collection, but he will become the first man in the Open Era to have won each Grand Slam event on two or more occasions. He would also become the fifth player – man or woman – to notch 20 or more Grand Slam titles, joining Federer, Steffi Graf (22), Serena Williams (23) and Margaret Court (24).
Neither Federer nor Nadal will be viewed as the favourite for this event, however. That honour goes to Djokovic.
The 16-time major winner – who has made no secret of his own ambitions to surpass his fellow ‘Big Three’ members in the Grand Slam charts – became the most successful player in the tournament’s history last year, thumping Nadal in the final to win his seventh title down under.
An eighth crown in Melbourne would see him join Federer and Nadal as the only men in history to win eight titles at any single Grand Slam event.
He started the season in ominous fashion, remaining unbeaten in eight matches – six singles and two doubles – to guide Serbia to ATP Cup glory.
Nadal’s Spain were beaten in the final. His straight-sets loss to Djokovic extended a miserable run against the Serb on hard courts. He is without a win on the surface since the 2013 US Open final and he has lost 19 sets on the spin.
Most Grand Slam titles (ATP)
20 – Federer
19 – Nadal
16 – Djokovic
14 – Sampras
He is also without a hard court win over Federer since 2014 and he will perhaps be grateful that the Swiss has landed in Djokovic’s half of the draw.
That said, Nadal has his own challenges to negotiate on his side of the draw, not least Daniil Medvedev.
The rangy Russian was narrowly beaten in five sets by Nadal in last year’s US Open final but has continued to establish himself among the world’s elite and is widely considered to be the man most likely to end Federer, Nadal and Djokovic’s combined 12-Slam winning streak.
Securing his position as fourth rather than fifth seed during Russia’s run to the semi-finals of the inaugural ATP Cup felt crucial, ensuring he would not meet any of the ‘Big Three’ until the semi-finals.
Make no mistake, Medvedev is operating at a level capable of seriously challenging each of Federer, Djokovic and Nadal and represents the rest of the field’s best hope of upsetting their dominance.
Stefanos Tsitsipas would probably be the next man on that list. The 20-year-old Greek beat Federer en route to last year’s semi-finals but was ultimately humbled by Nadal.
Two-time French Open runner-up Dominic Thiem is another player who has improved markedly on hard courts – he was especially impressive in wins over Federer and Djokovic at the ATP Finals at the end of 2019 – and will hope to improve on his best performance in Melbourne, where he’s not been beyond round four.
Of the rest, it will be interesting to see if a motivated Nick Kyrgios can go deep.
Clearly emotionally affected by the bushfires ravaging his country, the Australian has put a string of impressive performances in the build-up to this tournament while raising money by serving aces.
He’s due to meet Nadal in the fourth round, although it would be wishful thinking to claim it’s a certainty that match will materialise.
One match that will hopefully come to fruition is a potential second-round encounter between Denis Shapovalov and Jannik Sinner.
Shapovalov ended last season in very strong form and looked to have picked up where he left off at the ATP Cup, pushing Djokovic hard in the group stages. He seems to have toned down his gung-ho tactics under the stewardship of Mikhail Youzhny while retaining the weapons that have propelled him to the upper echelons of the ATP rankings.
Sinner is trying to maintain a curious streak. Every player who has won the ATP Next Gen Finals has then gone on to reach the semi-finals of the next Australian Open. Can he follow in Hyeon Chung and Tsitsipas’ footsteps? It would likely involve taking out Federer en route…
In truth, it’s a stretch to see that happening but make no mistake, the 18-year-old from Italy possesses fearsome, yet effortless, power off both wings and he is capable of announcing himself in Melbourne.
For all the runners and riders, however, there remains a clear favourite.
Australian Open pre-tournament odds
6/5 – Djokovic
4/1 – Nadal
15/2 – Medvedev
10/1 – Federer
14/1 – Tsitsipas
22/1 – Thiem
28/1 – Kyrgios
40/1 – Zverev
Djokovic looked back to his best across Brisbane and Sydney in the ATP Cup and has already inflicted defeats on two of his biggest rivals.
A first-round meeting with Jan-Lennard Struff – the German world No. 37 – is a potential banana skin but few would be surprised to see him lifting a 17th major title.
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