Arlene Foster’s return to power as Northern Ireland’s first minister has given a boost to the Democratic Unionist leader after her party’s losses in the December general election. But now she faces another test: potentially damaging findings from an inquiry into the spending scandal that toppled the region’s last government three years ago.
The “cash-for-ash” affair was a botched green energy scheme designed to incentivise businesses to switch from fossil fuels. But the renewable heat incentive, or RHI, offered a far higher public subsidy for using wood pellets than the fuel actually cost. And unlike the rest of the UK, Northern Ireland did not impose a cap on how much each participant could receive, leading to claims that some were heating empty premises in order to collect subsidies.
The scandal, which left the region’s taxpayers with a potential bill of £490m, was exacerbated by tensions over Brexit, which is supported by the DUP and opposed by the Irish nationalist party Sinn Féin.
But while Mrs Foster is now back at the helm of the executive at Stormont with deputy first minister Michelle O’Neill of Sinn Féin, both parties were weakened in the December poll and are expected to face uncomfortable questions when Sir Patrick Coghlin, a former appeal court judge, hands down his RHI inquiry findings next month.
Mrs Foster presided over the RHI scheme — she was enterprise minister when it was introduced, finance minister when costs spiralled out of control and first minister when the government fell.
Some in Stormont say her return means that her party does not expect the inquiry to destroy her leadership. “If the DUP thought there was a fatal blow coming, they would probably have put someone else in as first minister,” said one senior Belfast unionist.
But the investigation follows a series of other setbacks for Mrs Foster. Last autumn the prime minister broke a promise to her when he agreed a Brexit deal that put a trade border in the Irish Sea. Meanwhile, she was dealt a blow when the DUP lost two seats in the House of Commons in the general election and unionists were overtaken by Irish nationalist MPs for the first time.
Sam McBride, an authority on unionist politics and author of Burned, a best-selling book on the “cash-for-ash” scandal, said recent events have left Mrs Foster highly exposed. “Having presided over a disastrous election for unionism she is now in a very weak position and particularly vulnerable even to limited [RHI inquiry] criticism,” he said.
His book alleged the “feckless profligacy — or worse” of senior Stormont figures in the scandal. He also set out how Mrs Foster signed a document suggesting the scheme provided value for money without knowing the cost. This “undermined her boast of being someone who was forensic with detail and by implication could be trusted to handle the complex business of government”, Mr McBride wrote.
Sir Patrick, who heard evidence for 111 days at Stormont, has circulated draft findings to witnesses for their response, but a DUP spokesperson declined to comment on the document. “We await publication of the inquiry report. Arlene Foster has indicated that there will be lessons to be learned and has already apologised,” a DUP spokesman said, referring to a 2018 statement in which the party leader said she was “deeply, deeply sorry for the mistakes we made, and for the things we got wrong during that period”.
The forthcoming report did not prevent Sinn Féin from agreeing to re-enter government with Mrs Foster — a sign that it believes the revived executive can survive the inquiry.
But the nationalist party may also face questions over the scandal. The inquiry heard that before the previous government fell, Máirtín Ó Muilleoir, a former Sinn Féin finance minister, had emailed Ted Howell, an ally of former party leader Gerry Adams who had no official role in the government, about DUP plans to rein in the costs of RHI.
This prompted Leo Varadkar, Irish premier, in November 2018 to question in the Irish parliament whether Sinn Féin ministers needed approval from “senior republicans” with no elected office to decide policy. Mr Ó Muilleoir stepped down from the assembly shortly before Christmas.
In their power-sharing agreement, the DUP, Sinn Féin and the three smaller parties — the Ulster Unionists, the nationalist Social Democratic & Labour party, and cross-community Alliance — agreed that the executive would set up a subcommittee to consider the findings and “deliver the changes necessary to rebuild public confidence”.
Stephen Farry, newly elected MP and deputy leader of the cross-community Alliance party, said the scandal exposed “multiple failures” at Stormont. “Taking fully on board the recommendations is vital for the credibility of the institutions,” he said.
Steve Aiken, leader of the Ulster Unionists, said inquiry proceedings suggested the Stormont government was a “basket case”. Asked whether Mrs Foster can survive the report, Mr Aiken said “anything” was possible “because the reality is that neither the DUP nor Sinn Féin are going to come out of this report well”.
Mr McBride agreed that the executive may be vulnerable. “The difficulty which [political leaders] cannot entirely foresee is: how do the public react to the report?” If Sir Patrick delivers “devastating” findings then the new administration could be built on sand, he said.
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