Science

Anti-satellite missile test has increased the chances the ISS will be struck by debris to 49%


Space junk from India’s anti-satellite missile test is threatening to puncture the ISS, claims Russia’s space agency

  • More than 400 pieces of debris appeared after India tested the weapon in March
  • Sergei Krikalyov of Russian space agency Roscomos issued the new warning 
  • His comments were made at a session of the Russian Academy of Science  
  • He claims that US calculations revealed the increased risk of a penetrating strike 

Space junk from a satellite shot down in March by India means the International Space Station is more likely to be penetrated by space junk than previously thought.

Sergei Krikalyov – executive director of the Russian space agency’s manned space program – issued the warning, according to reports from news agency TASS.

More than 400 pieces of debris appeared after India tested an anti-satellite interceptor missile, launched by the nation in March.  

NASA previously estimated that the missile test had increased the chances of any space junk hitting the International Space Station (ISS) to 44 per cent. 

India has been keen to play down the effects of its weapon launch, previously claiming that the debris would burn up in the Earth’s atmosphere. 

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Space junk from a satellite that was shot down means the International Space Station (pictured) is more likely to be punctured by space junk than previously thought. Sergei Krikalyov of the Russian space agency issued the warning (stock image)

Space junk from a satellite that was shot down means the International Space Station (pictured) is more likely to be punctured by space junk than previously thought. Sergei Krikalyov of the Russian space agency issued the warning (stock image)

Mr Krikalyov made the comments at a session of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ space council.

He said: ‘The Americans have carried out calculations on the probability of the station getting punctured because of more debris surfacing and being dispersed. 

‘There are numerical estimates raising the probability of a puncture by about five per cent.’

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in a televised address to the nation on March 27 that the country’s Air Force had successfully tested its own anti-satellite weapon, shooting down a satellite in low near-Earth orbit.

As Modi noted, the tests have enabled India to join the club of the world’s space super-powers, which includes the United States, Russia and China. 

The interceptor missile developed by India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) was launched from a testing range located on Abdul Kalam Island in the Bay of Bengal. 

The satellite shot down by an interceptor missile was a space vehicle produced by India domestically.

The launching of Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) Interceptor missile

The missile was launched from A P J Abdul Kalam Island in Odisha

More than 400 pieces of debris appeared after India tested an anti-satellite interceptor missile, launched by the nation in March. This image shows the launch from A P J Abdul Kalam Island in Odisha, which the country’s premier said put it among the space ‘superpowers’

US officials claimed in late March that debris from the Indian test would likely burn up and ‘vanish’ in a matter of weeks.

This came amid an outcry over its potential to add to the already pressing issue of space junk that orbits the planet. 

There are an estimated 170 million pieces of so-called ‘space junk’ – left behind after missions that can be as big as spent rocket stages or as small as paint flakes – in orbit alongside some $700 billion (£555bn) of infrastructure. 

In 2007, China destroyed a satellite in a polar orbit, creating the largest orbital debris cloud in history, with more than 3,000 objects, according to the Secure World Foundation.

Since the impact altitude exceeded 800 km (500 miles), many of the resulting scraps stayed in orbit.

The comments came after an estimation by India’s top defence scientist that the debris would burn up in about 45 days. 

Larger debris from the test continues to be a concern almost three months on, however.

Roscosmos’ Roman Fattakhov, who is responsible for monitoring debris in orbit, previously stated that that more than 100 pieces of debris may pose a risk to the ISS.

WHAT IS SPACE JUNK?

There are an estimated 170 million pieces of so-called ‘space junk’ – left behind after missions that can be as big as spent rocket stages or as small as paint flakes – in orbit alongside some US$700 billion ((£555bn) of space infrastructure.

But only 22,000 are tracked, and with the fragments able to travel at speeds above 16,777 mph (27,000kmh), even tiny pieces could seriously damage or destroy satellites.

However, traditional gripping methods don’t work in space, as suction cups do not function in a vacuum and temperatures are too cold for substances like tape and glue.

Grippers based around magnets are useless because most of the debris in orbit around Earth is not magnetic.

Around 500,000 pieces of human-made debris (artist’s impression) currently orbit our planet, made up of disused satellites, bits of spacecraft and spent rockets

Most proposed solutions, including debris harpoons, either require or cause forceful interaction with the debris, which could push those objects in unintended, unpredictable directions.

Scientists point to two events that have badly worsened the problem of space junk.

The first was in February 2009, when an Iridium telecoms satellite and Kosmos-2251, a Russian military satellite, accidentally collided.

The second was in January 2007, when China tested an anti-satellite weapon on an old Fengyun weather satellite.

Experts also pointed to two sites that have become worryingly cluttered.

One is low Earth orbit which is used by satnav satellites, the ISS, China’s manned missions and the Hubble telescope, among others.

The other is in geostationary orbit, and is used by communications, weather and surveillance satellites that must maintain a fixed position relative to Earth. 

 



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