We analyse Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal at the end-of-season event, including their head-to-heads and the impact of the conditions.
The Nitto ATP Finals is the final tournament of the men’s professional tennis season. It features only the world’s best eight qualified singles players and doubles teams as they battle it out for the last title of the season.
The 2019 edition which held at London’s O2 Arena was headlined by Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, who first all competed at the season finale in 2007. Twelve years on, this could be the last ATP Finals event to feature all of the “big three”.
Rafael Nadal injury record could mean that there are no guarantees about his long-term future while Federer, who is the 7/2 joint-second favourite to win the competition in the latest tennis betting, has already pushed the boundaries in terms of career longevity.
The big three has helped to transform the tournament from an end-of-season hit into one of the sport’s most prestigious titles by delivering 11 titles between themselves. Although the trio have played 16 matches and 32 sets against each other at the season-ending event, this doesn’t stop them from reach
We broke down their head-to-head numbers to analyse whether they have dominated the Tour Finals like they dominate grand slams.
As reported by Online Tennis site Betway.
Head-To-Head
The Swiss, Federer, has won the ATP tour finals most often, winning it twice before either Djokovic or Nadal were involved.
Being the oldest of the three, it is no surprise that he had three attempts at winning the ATP Tour Finals.
The 38-year-old has played this event 14 times overall, winning only six of those attempts (42.9 per cent).
Djokovic has won this title on five of 11 attempts (45.5 percent). His numbers are slightly better, even though all of those victories came when Federer was competing, though Nadal only featured in two of them.
On the other hand, Nadal, who hopes to be ready for the tournament despite suffering from a right abdominal injury, has not won the event in eight attempts, although he has never competed in one when either of the other two has been missing.
It should be worthy of note that Federer has won three of the six Tour Finals that the trio have all played in, with Russian baseline wizard Nikolay Davydenko winning the other in 2009.
Djokovic’s head-to-head record stacks up for individual matches as well. The 32-year-old from Serbia has clearly always been dynamite in the Tour Finals. The 16-time Grand Slam winner leads Federer 4-2 in match-ups at this event, though one of those was 2014 final when the Swiss pulled out beforehand because of injury.
Djokovic also beats Nadal on head-to-head and has won both of their meetings since 2010.
Taking all of this into account, Djokovic should be considered the greatest of the three in the Tour Finals.
Conditions
The Serb leads Federer 6-4 in head-to-heads at the US Open and Australian Open combined and owns a 3-2 lead against Nadal across the same events.
It’s obvious that Djokovic has a superior head-to-head record against both Federer and Nadal in hard-court majors, suggesting that suitability to the surface is the biggest deciding factor in winning the Tour Finals.
As mentioned, the Serb’s pedigree on hard-courts is second-to-none, even against the likes of Federer and Nadal.
The impact of the Tour Finals being an indoor tournament is proved by Federer’s head-to-head record against the Spaniard, though.
The Swiss is renowned for his impressive indoor record. The lack of wind ensures that conditions remain consistent, so hitting through the line of the ball and hand-eye co-ordination are attributes that are well rewarded in a sterile environment.
This fact clearly explains why he trails Nadal 3-1 in hard-court Majors but has defeated him four out of five times in the Tour Finals.
It should also be noted that Nadal, who has struggled mightily with injuries throughout his career, is affected the most by the indoor conditions that the Tour level finals present.
The Spaniard suffers from a disorder called Kohler’s feet – an irregularity in growth and development of the tarsal navicular bone in the foot – as well as suffering from chronic knee issues. He also underwent ankle surgery in November 2018.
At the end of a long season, those issues rise to the forefront of the Spaniard’s list and that also explains why he has only competed in eight Tour Finals – Federer has played in 14 and Djokovic in 11 – and never won the event.
Domination
The domination that Federer and Djokovic have enjoyed in this competition since 2003 is shown in comparison to the last 16 years.
Between 2003-2018, just seven players won the Tour finals, with David Nalbandian, Davydenko, Andy Murray, Grigor Dimitrov and Alexander Zverev capturing the title on one occasion each.
Federer and Djokovic’s superiority was even more impressive after the 2015 edition of the tournament when they had won 11 of the last 13 available trophies.
In the previous 16 years between 1987-2002, there have been nine different champions. Pete Sampras won it five times, but defended it on one occasion, while Boris Becker won on three occasions.
Four players have won it in five years between 1998-2002, but it took another seven years for another four – Federer, David Nalbandian, Djokovic and Davydenko – to lift the title.
Trivia
Should the Tour Finals always be played on an indoor hard court?
This is a question that has been raised on many different occasions. The last time that the event was not played on hard court was in 1974.
In 2013, the question intensified when Federer and Nadal went public in their disagreement on which court surface should be used.
Nadal – whose favourite surface is clay – challenged the status quo, saying: “A good player has a chance to qualify for the Tour Finals four or five times in his career. “If during this four years you have a different surface every year, a minimum one time he will have the chance to play on his favourite surface”. This analysis by Nadal was clearly a valid one.
There are however drawbacks to the Nadal’s train of thought. Players would have to immediately acclimatize to clay after months of playing on a hard surface but these challenges would be the same for all players across the board.
Federer – an indoor, hard-court specialist – went in the other another direction. “I just feel indoors don’t have enough play,” he said. “The indoor season is small. I believe indoors deserves a huge event, which this one is.”
That said, indoor courts don’t have feelings, Roger, but ticket-holders for the 2014 final did. Federer pulled out of that match against Djokovic with a back injury, apologizing in person to the crowd at the O2 Arena. “I’m sorry I’m not fit to play,” he said. “I did everything I could. I took pain-killers, had rest until the very end, but I just cannot compete at this level with Novak. “At my age, it would have been a risk.”
So it was a surprise to see the Swiss Star representing Switzerland at the Davis Cup just five days later, playing six singles sets and three doubles sets in three days to help them win the competition for the first time.
Andy Murray rushed to the O2 to replace Federer and take on Djokovic in an exhibition set for the crowd that Sunday, and was rewarded by the tennis gods when he ended the trio’s monopoly on the No. 1 world ranking just before the Tour Finals two years later.
The Scot was already top of the pile heading to London but would have surrendered the position had he lost the final against the Serb. A two-set victory ensured that he ended 2016 officially as the best player on the planet, although all three of Federer, Nadal and Djokovic have since reclaimed the crown.
