Politics

After a month, Johnson has exceeded Tory expectations – now the hard part begins | Katy Balls


Three years ago, Boris Johnson was the butt of the joke among Conservative MPs. After his spectacular failure to become prime minister, he was thrown a political lifeline by Theresa May making him foreign secretary, yet there was little evidence that theirs was a relationship of mutual respect. At her first Conservative party conference as prime minister, May used her keynote speech to poke fun at his reputation for being a chaotic and inconsistent politician.

“When we came to Birmingham this week, some big questions were hanging in the air. Do we have a plan for Brexit? We do. Are we ready for the effort it will take to see it through? We are. Can Boris Johnson stay on message for a full four days … ? Just about.”

With the gift of hindsight, alternative answers are required on all counts. May’s government did not have a plan for leaving the EU; her party was divided on how much effort should be put into seeing Brexit through; and Johnson’s ability to stay on message has been the biggest surprise of his premiership to date.

Saturday marks Johnson’s first month in Downing Street – and the mood in the Tory party is one of renewed optimism. The Conservatives are on the up, with a Kantar poll this week giving them a 14-point lead. Johnson has just held two meetings with EU leaders that appeared to open the door for Brexit renegotiations – something that had been deemed impossible. Back home in the UK, Downing Street is running with a level of efficiency and discipline far removed from the chaotic end days of May.

This wasn’t how it was supposed to play out. A Johnson premiership was something many on the right of politics – as well as the left – had warned against. There were predictions of chaos and endless bluster. Instead, the first four weeks have delivered a tightly run government with clear messages: to deliver Brexit by 31 October, to fund the NHS, to tackle law and order. “He’s confounded critics by not blowing everything up,” says a government aide – offering a new definition of faint praise. “The polls are improving, we seem to have a purpose to governing,” says a former member of government. “Let’s see if it lasts.”

The overall aim has been to centralise messaging after months of uncertainty under May. To do this, efforts have been made to move power from across government back to 10 Downing Street. Ministers are on tight leashes – no announcement is permitted unless it’s in the No 10 grid. Aides are summoned to weekly Friday meetings where they are encouraged to tell on their boss if they misbehave or go off message. No 10 staff are on long days with 8am and 7pm meetings daily. Holiday leave has been cancelled. Aides are getting bank holiday Monday off – but this is regarded as a kindness rather than an automatic right.

Crucial to the new regime is Dominic Cummings, the campaign director of Vote Leave in the EU referendum. His appointment as Johnson’s most senior aide caused division among Tory MPs – many of whom Cummings has criticised in blog posts over the past couple of years. However, even those who dislike him personally are willing to go along with things for the time being on the basis that the Tories are in a bind and this is the best solution on offer. With a working majority of one, a hard Brexit deadline of 31 October and a majority of MPs against no deal, both Team Johnson and the bulk of Conservative MPs believe an early election could be imminent. They have a mutual interest in ensuring Johnson does not go down in the history books as one of the shortest-serving prime ministers in history.

Within No 10, there has been a push to use the summer recess to establish a government narrative and set out Johnson’s other policy priorities. Next week there will be a focus on education – it’s no coincidence that this is the area that, with Brexit, the NHS and crime, is in the top four of voters’ issues, according to Ipsos Mori polling.

The focus of the Johnson government is the general public rather than wavering MPs. Their hope is to reunite the leave vote from the EU referendum and prepare the Tories to win a majority in an election – whenever it comes. There’s a new hope in government that the mood music from EU leaders will give Johnson more time and dissuade anti-no-deal MPs from trying to bring the government down immediately when they return from the summer recess. But how long can this all last? No 10 knows that with MPs away on their holidays, August has been the easy bit. Once parliament returns it expects to have less control of the daily news agenda. However, it is ready to fight fire with fire. Where May would often fold to avoid confrontation with MPs, this government plans to respond to antics from Dominic Grieve and others with their own tricks – “Expect some clever footwork,” says an insider.

Every prime minister enjoys a honeymoon period. May was able to celebrate the most commanding political honeymoon of any modern Tory prime minister – with a 14-point lead six months in. Margaret Thatcher was five points behind at the same stage: the honeymoon isn’t a reliable indicator of the length of one’s premiership. For Johnson, however, every positive day is a win. He doesn’t have time to waste – or a guarantee of even six months in office. It will be an achievement if he is there at Christmas.

That’s why when Johnson takes to the stage for his first party conference as Conservative leader next month, he would do well to remember May’s barb and stay on message. The future of his government depends on it.

Katy Balls is the Spectator’s deputy political editor



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