I am a little bit surprised to see Dan Skelton’s seven-year-old Mohaayed available at 12-1 in the Betfair Exchange Trophy (Ascot, 15:35).
He won this race well last season off exactly the same mark as today (145) and the stable are known for priming their runners for a specific target. Make no bones about it, all his runs this season have had one aim in mind – to bring his handicap mark down and get him fit.
And Skelton has achieved it. His handicap mark has dropped 7lb and three runs will have put him spot-on for today fitness wise. My only slight worry is the ground which, given the rain that has fallen this week, will be really, really heavy.
But he’s won very well on soft ground and ultimately I suspect the going will not hold any fears. Last season he won easier than the bare margin off that 145 mark and did it by racing in behind three clear leaders, kicking early and outstaying them. Given the make-up of the race, with a few clear front-runners, then it would be no surprise were he to win again with exactly the same form comments. I can certainly see him getting backed and the 12-1 should look big come race time, so a good each way bet is advised.
Plus don’t forget, Betfair Sportsbook are offering a free bet of up to £25 for every winner at 3/1 or over during ITV racing on Saturday (free bet matching original stake, max £25).
A very Fair bet in the Marsh Hurdle
The big question regarding the Marsh Hurdle (Ascot, 14:25, also known as the Longwalk Hurdle) is whether Paisley Park is beatable. On all known form the answer to that question is no. But on heavy ground is there a slight chink in his armour? Possibly.
He won this race last season on soft ground (only win on soft ground btw) but his subsequent wins all came on good-to-soft ground, but given he hits a flat spot in his race could this really heavy ground prolong that flat spot? Again, possibly.
And for that reason I’m going advise an each-way bet on Tobefair. I wouldn’t normally advise an each-way bet in a race with less than eight runners but given the profile of the rest of the runners he’s the only one for me given he’s an out-and-out stayer over 3m on heavy ground.
Agrapart also has a win over 3m on soft ground but that race for me really cut up and turned into a bit of a sprint over the last two hurdles. Tobefair won a decent Class 2 handicap at Cheltenham on heavy ground two runs ago when carrying 11-12 and giving a huge amount of weight to the second horse, he then went on to finish third staying on really well over 3m at Cheltenham (again) beaten four lengths and again off 11-12. The winner and second were getting 26lb and 14lb from Tobefair respectively so it was a massive run especially given that he was finishing so strongly.
I just can’t get him out of the two on this ground given it will turn into a real test of stamina in the ground and as such we have to back the 12-1 each-way on the Betfair Sportsbook.
