Canada’s immigration system shows how UK policy could be tailored to help Scotland head off a looming demographic crisis over the balance between pensioners and working age Scots, a study has concluded.
The UK government has repeatedly dismissed calls for devolution of powers over immigration from Scottish ministers, who argue Scotland’s economy will suffer major damage if Brexit ends the free movement of EU citizens into the UK.
Under the government’s current plans, EU nationals entering the UK between the planned Brexit date of October 31 and the end of 2020 will be granted a three-year temporary leave to remain in the country.
But Scotland’s very low birth rate, rapidly ageing population and relatively low levels of net immigration means it has clearly distinct needs from England, said the David Hume Institute, a think-tank.
The institute highlighted how Canada’s system allows provinces greater flexibility in attracting workers in specific fields as well as overall numbers of immigrants — depending on the needs of the local economies.
“There is a compelling case for the Scottish government to be able to adjust immigration to meet Scotland’s unique challenge . . . even without the added uncertainty of Brexit,” said Jane-Frances Kelly, a director at the institute.
The institute cites official estimates that suggest Scotland’s pension-age population will increase by 265,000 by 2041, while the working-age population rises by only 38,000. Since 1998, there had been an increase of 31 per cent in the number of people aged over 75 in Scotland, and a decline of 8 per cent in those under the age of 15.
Experts commissioned by the Scottish government predicted in February that Scotland’s working age population would actually decline by 3 to 5 per cent over the next 25 years if the UK proceeded with proposals to end free movement of EU nationals.
Conservative party politicians have been deeply sceptical of the practicality of a devolved or tailored visa policies for Scotland, partly out of concern that they could become a “back door” for flows of migrants into England.
However, the David Hume Institute said: “If strong agreements were put in place alongside robust governance arrangements, there is little to stop us adopting a similar approach.”
Canadian provinces are able to negotiate with the federal government for the allocation of extra points in the national points-based visa system to immigrants who agree to live at least initially within their territory. It also allows provincial governments to create programmes that favour the kind of immigrant their labour markets need.
“The evidence from more than 20 years of the [system] is that it has achieved its objective of spreading migrants across Canada,” the institute said.
Scotland’s minister for Europe and migration told the Financial Times in May that Edinburgh might use devolved powers to create a liberal visa regime that would seek to effectively emulate free movement for EU citizens.
The institute’s report said Scotland could also seek to raise workforce participation rates and do more to attract more workers from other parts of the UK. It said Edinburgh should also seek to persuade Scottish emigrants to return, citing the example of targeted publicity campaigns by Ireland, Australia and New Zealand.
