Politics

5 tests the UK will have to meet before relaxing coronavirus lockdown


Boris Johnson has warned he is not relaxing the coronavirus lockdown yet.

In his first No10 statement since surviving Covid-19, the Tory leader promised he would say more about restrictions in “the coming days”.

We will at some point move out of the “first phase” of lockdown, he said, and into a “second phase” of easing restrictions while massively ramping up monitoring of the disease.

But despite a review of the lockdown due before May 7, Mr Johnson said the UK can only move past the first phase when we fulfil “five tests”.

These tests were first outlined 11 days ago by Dominic Raab, the Prime Minister’s stand-in while he was sick.

Only once the UK has fulfilled these tests will some of the lockdown measures – though not all – be relaxed.

So what are the five tests, and why are they so crucial? Here is a brief explainer.

Boris Johnson said the UK can only move past the first phase when we fulfil “five tests”

1) The NHS is able to cope

So far, the NHS has not exceeded capacity in hospitals – with spare intensive care beds and spare ventilators.

But that is only because capacity was ramped up, including in vast Nightingale field hospitals.

And more importantly, because lockdown has kept the number of critically ill patients lower than it would be.

Government modelling predicts how many hospital cases there will be at the virus’s peak (and don’t forget, there can be more than one peak).

If the model predicts demand will outstrip supply then we can’t ease up on restrictions. It would mean doctors and nurses were forced to make heartbreaking choices about who should be kept alive.

As Dominic Raab put it: “We must be confident that we are able to provide sufficient critical care and specialist treatment right across the UK.”

NHS Nightingale Hospital at ExCel is one of those that has ramped up capacity

2) A sustained fall in deaths

Dominic Raab said earlier this month: “We need to see a sustained and consistent fall in the daily death rates from coronavirus so we are confident that we have moved beyond the peak.”

The peak of recorded deaths was 980 on April 10, while the peak of new positive cases was 4,424 on April 7.

But the new positive cases could shoot up now that testing has been ramped up to include key workers and their families.

And deaths are falling, but are still at more than 400 newly recorded each day.

Each one is a human being with a devastated family. This is a huge toll of people dying each day. Before easing up on restrictions the virus has to recede and let up on its terrible toll on the public.

Deaths are falling, but are still at more than 400 newly recorded each day

3) New infections dropping enough

Mr Raab said: “We need to have reliable data from SAGE showing that the rate of infection is decreasing to manageable levels across the board.”

That means focusing on the crucial ‘R’ number – the number of people each person with Covid-19 infects on average.

If R is more than 1.0, it means the virus spreads exponentially and soon runs out of control.

At the moment it is between about 0.5 and 1.0, but only because the lockdown is restricting people’s contact with each other. Any small change could push it above 1.

And that risk is especially high if new infections aren’t dropping enough – i.e., if the ‘R’ number is currently only just below 1.

If R is more than 1.0, it means the virus spreads exponentially and soon runs out of control. Pictured: Staff at Royal London Hospital

4) Adequate testing and PPE

Dominic Raab said: “We need to be confident that the range of operational challenges, including testing capacity and PPE, are in hand, with supply able to meet future demand.”

This is obviously about the huge issues in supplying gloves, gowns and masks that have plagued hospitals and care homes.

But it’s also about testing – and the need to get up to the government’s 100,000-per-day target.

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Coronavirus outbreak

The reason this is so crucial is because only with a “test, track and trace” approach can we know early on if the virus is resurging in the community.

That will allow the government to respond quickly before it gets out of control.

The idea is to combine mass testing with an army of 18,000 contact-tracing staff and an NHS phone app which would use Bluetooth to tell you if you’ve been in close contact with someone one’s infected.

This app and these staff must be up and running before the test can truly be fulfilled.

5) No risk of a second peak

Dominic Raab said: “We need to be confident that any adjustments to the current measures will not risk a second peak of infections that overwhelm the NHS.”

This is a really high bar. It’s not that we should reduce the risk of a second major outbreak.

It says we’re supposed to be avoiding any risk of it completely, or least be “confident” that we are.

This will mean relaxing the lockdown bit by bit and adjusting to a “new normal” – not just going back to how things were before.





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